Recently, I haven't written many book notes, but I have actually been reading these two books.
I decided to systematically read "Poor Charlie's Almanack" because when I was researching Berkshire Hathaway, I discovered that Charlie Munger not only had exceptional wisdom in investment decisions (such as investing in BYD instead of Tesla), but also had unique insights into life matters (such as human misjudgment psychology).
Encountering Nassim Taleb's "Antifragile" was like a sign from God. I had heard about the general content of this book through podcasts before and was interested, but hadn't made up my mind to buy it immediately. By chance, when I was on a business trip to Tianjin and forgot to bring a book, I saw this book at the travel bookstore in the high-speed rail station. So I felt a strong connection and bought it as my travel companion.
Well, when I quickly skimmed through these two books, I found some commonalities that I think are worth writing about and recording.
- Whether in life or investment, it is necessary to have a "diverse thinking model."
- Every system needs more randomness.
- Beware of "scientific" theories and university education.
Here are some explanations:
-
Diverse thinking: It refers to the need for a person to have a multidisciplinary thinking model rather than a single thinking pattern. A single pattern often means a single point, and the risks involved are enormous. Multidisciplinary fields include basic sciences such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, as well as psychology, economics, humanities, etc. Having a diverse thinking model allows people to see the essence of things through phenomena, as things are usually influenced by multiple factors. Munger believes that a person needs to master more than 95% of models in various fields (which I find difficult, but it may be the secret to his longevity and success).
-
Randomness in systems: Here, "every system" actually includes all the small organizational units in life, from individual "body organs" to companies, industries, and countries. Taking the human body as an example, if the body as a system only takes in without outputting (exercise) for a long time, it is easy to enter a sub-healthy state, and if the system does not feel stress, it is easy for organ diseases to occur. Taking a company as a larger system, if a company remains stable for a long time, its antifragility is very low. When major crises occur, such as the emergence of new technologies or the decline of IBM due to the advent of mobile internet, stability can be easily disrupted.
-
Beware of "scientific theories": Humans try to control and predict everything to prepare for the future, but the appearance of black swan events is often unpredictable, and black swans always have randomness. The emergence of scientific theories is a core factor of "modernization." When the appearance of everything is accompanied by theories, it becomes terrifying because humans try to speculate on the intentions of the "turkey farmer" with their own wisdom (case: turkey scientist). Another point is to be wary of theories from university institutions because teachers or professors in academic positions often develop a single-disciplinary thinking model (corresponding to the first point). For example, in economics, the application of supply and demand relationships in real life has deviations: raising prices does not necessarily reduce demand and sales (case: luxury goods).
In addition to the above points, when reflecting on the three-year pandemic, I thought about the relevance to Taleb's "Antifragile." War is actually the volatility in the larger system of human civilization, which allows human civilization to constantly evolve and change. The world order has undergone significant changes after each war, and after a long period of stability, wars are inevitably introduced to bring about change (e.g., World War I in Europe after a century of peace). So, will the peace order since World War II encounter war again? I think the answer is inevitable, but is it possible that "pandemics" are a variant of modern warfare? The damage it causes to human scale and the economy can already rival past wars. From the perspective of antifragility, forest fires are meant to remove flammable wood and strengthen the forest's lushness. Similarly, the pandemic eliminates the weak groups in the human system, such as the elderly, as a means to perpetuate civilization (although I am reluctant to admit it because my loved ones have also passed away in this process, but perhaps this is the law of life, and this world is always in the hands of God).
These are the points I remembered after quickly skimming through the books, but these two books are worth reading repeatedly, and there may be more ideas that come up later.